Today’s Downsizer Dispatch . . .
Quote of the Day:
“Never believe anything in politics until it has been officially denied.”
— Otto Von Bismark
Subject: Iraq on 9-11
General Petraeus yesterday, and 9-11 today. Things are following their natural order in Iraq, and we are one day closer to the next terrorist attack in America.
General Petraeus is following the Saddam Hussein strategy, making deals with Sunni tribal leaders to quiet things in Anbar province. That was Hussein’s recipe too. Prediction: expect a Shia reaction.
Meanwhile, today, as with every day, we are closer to the next terrorist attack. It isn’t a matter of if, but when. Prediction: the political response to the next attack will be the same as with the last. The politicians will grab more power and money at your expense. Futility has its rewards, if you’re a politician.
In Iraq the separation of the tribes into Sunni and Shia appears to be well advanced. Those of the wrong group living in the wrong place have largely moved, or been killed. The natural order is asserting itself, in all its brutal glory, red of tooth and claw. Next comes the reckoning, dominate or divide?
The timing of it depends on the triangulating strategy of the Sunnis. The Sunni don’t want to engage the final showdown against three powers; the Shia, the U.S., and the terrorists. So they’re making a deal with the U.S. to eliminate one these powers, the terrorists. If the Shia react to the deal with violence, that’s all to the good for the Sunni. The Shia will expend themselves toward a goal the Sunni share, driving out the U.S.
In the end comes the showdown. Either the Sunni will rule, oppressing the Shia, or the Shia will rule oppressing the Sunni, or the country will partition. Dominate or divide. The least likely outcome remains the one U.S. leaders prefer, a united Iraq under a democratic constitution.
Meanwhile, our presence in Iraq continues to radicalize Muslims everywhere, recruiting rabid minds to jihad, and hastening the day of the next attack on our shores.
We hope we are wrong. But unfortunately, we think we are right because political solutions, government solutions, are almost always wrong. The sphere in which politicians and governments can operate with any degree of competence is extremely tiny.
How do you know something is a mistake? Politicians are proposing it. This is true because the incentives encourage government failure by rewarding it, and because the knowledge and power required to centrally plan complex societies is simply unavailable to anyone — let alone politicians. The natural order always prevails.
We must change the incentives by which government operates. This means changing public opinion by achieving universal visibility for our ideas, and changing Congressional opinion by exerting inescapable, resistance numbing pressure on the politicians. This is not the work of a day, but of every day, in small but relentless increments until the goal is achieved.
Today it is time for more increments. Please work to prevent the bad reaction that will come with the next, inevitable terrorist attack. Please, on this anniversary of 9-11, tell Congress that you are not afraid of terrorism. Tell them you know there will be another attack, that you accept that, that you are not afraid, and that you do not want Congress to be afraid on your behalf.
You can send your 9-11 “I am not afraid” message here.
Please, also, help us to survive (and thrive) financially. We are still far behind where we need to be to keep operating. We understand that a great deal of money is going into political campaigns now. But the campaign season will end soon, and we hope you agree that DownsizeDC.org still needs to be here, strong and growing when that day comes. That can only happen through your financial support. Please make a generous one-time contribution that helps us make budget this month.
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Thank you for being a DC Downsizer.
Jim Babka & Perry Willis
President & Communications Director
DownsizeDC.org, Inc.